Thursday, July 31, 2025

Government Statistics are getting more imputed these days

We have always needed to take government statistics with a grain of salt. It's more popular these days to change definitions and methods of measurement in ways that look a great deal like bias. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates inflation numbers monthly. Where they can’t find prices for particular products in particular location, they estimate by using a comparable product or location. This guesstimate is called “different cell imputation.” [It’s too close to “amputation” for my tastes.] 

Before staffing cuts, this process was used about 10% of the time. I April it was used 30% of the time and in May 35%. One of the casualties of the federal staffing cuts is the accuracy of government statistics. 

I don’t think that the administration considers this a problem, since they like to say what’s true and what’s not. But beware of government statistics for the time being. Inflation, employment, and trade are a few examples. 

On the other hand, the government has been massaging statistics as long as I can remember. Every month they change last month’s employment numbers and sometimes the month before that. Hindsight isn't always 20/20, and foresight never is. 

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